OPEC+ quota increase yet to lead to surge in oil production — Morgan Stanley

Analysts at Morgan Stanley note the weak impact of quota hikes by OPEC+ on real oil output. Despite the cartel’s quotas rising by one million barrels per day over the period from March to June, the actual increase in crude production is hard to detect. 

The bank based its conclusions on such data as cargo exports, refinery throughput, stockpiling, and pipeline flows, as well as production estimates from six various providers.

However, Morgan Stanley expects supply from OPEC+ core members to increase by 420,000 barrels per day between June and September, with about half of this volume coming from Saudi Arabia. This forecast is based on the continued increase in quotas by the cartel.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley still sees a surplus in the oil market. Supply from non-OPEC+ countries is projected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, outpacing the world’s demand rise by 800,000 barrels per day. The bank also forecasts oil prices at $57.50 per barrel in the second half of this year.