Today at 10:30 AM | Oil

WTI–Brent spread compression puts US oil exports at risk

WTI–Brent spread compression puts US oil exports at risk

The price spread between US WTI and Britain’s Brent crude has narrowed to just $2.78 per barrel. This is the tightest level since September of last year.

The American active rig count has fallen to the lowest point since November 2021, according to Baker Hughes. At the same time, wildfires in Canada’s Alberta province have forced a 7% reduction in oil output. These events have driven up prices for US crude.

Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn notes the current price environment makes American oil exports to Europe economically unviable. With the price spread below $4 per barrel, crude shipments become unprofitable. As he emphasizes, this could lead to domestic inventory buildup.

In contrast, OPEC+ nations are actively ramping up oil production. Since April, the alliance has increased output by 1.37 million barrels per day, offsetting potential global supply shortages. These actions by exporters are exerting additional downward pressure on prices and may accelerate the decline of US crude exports.

Period: 30.06.2025 Expectation: 1800 pips
Silver to continue growth despite short-term correction
Today at 11:31 AM 15
Elizabeth_Kuzmicheva
Elizabeth_Kuzmicheva

Listed among the best MarketCheese authors
1st in the segments "Metals" and "Oil and gas"
Gold sell
Period: 13.06.2025 Expectation: 4000 pips
Gold to fall to six-month trend line at 3,280
Today at 10:07 AM 39
Period: 20.06.2025 Expectation: 100 pips
Sell SPX until it hits 5,970
Today at 07:54 AM 22
Period: 20.06.2025 Expectation: 600 pips
AUDCAD declines on monetary policy divergence
06 June 2025 56
Elizabeth_Kuzmicheva
Elizabeth_Kuzmicheva

Listed among the best MarketCheese authors
1st in the segments "Metals" and "Oil and gas"
Period: 13.06.2025 Expectation: 1500 pips
GBPUSD to continue updating 3-year highs
06 June 2025 87
Period: 18.06.2025 Expectation: 350 pips
Buying natural gas with target at 4.000 on expected increase in cooling demand
05 June 2025 101
Go to forecasts