EIA forecasts first US oil production decline since 2021 for 2026

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that American oil production will decline in 2026 for the first time since 2021, falling to 13.37 million barrels per day (bpd) from 13.42 million bpd in 2025. This outlook contradicts President Donald Trump’s push to expand domestic energy production, as reported by Bloomberg.

Trump’s plans face headwinds from weak oil prices, which are pressuring shale producers, and expectations of softer global demand. For instance, US oil company Diamondback Energy Inc. has warned that its crude output has already peaked.

The EIA attributes the expected downturn to fewer wells being developed, citing a drop in active drilling rigs. The US rig count has already plummeted to a four-year low.

Shale production is now forecast to average 11.09 million bpd in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 11.25 million bpd. The revision stems largely from slowing growth in the Permian Basin, one of the nation’s most prolific oil regions.