4 June | Oil

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

According to Vortexa, crude oil and condensate deliveries from Iran to China totaled just over 1.1 million barrels per day in May, approximately 20% lower than it was a year earlier. Further ship tracking data collection may alter these figures.

Bloomberg reports that the US and its allies are seeking to reduce Iran's oil revenues in response to its nuclear program. Emma Lee, an analyst at Vortexa, said tighter restrictions are creating problems in the energy supply chain and raising concerns about its stability. She added China is experiencing a decline in demand for crude, primarily due to delays in seasonal maintenance at oil refineries, which is expected to continue until July.

China's independent refineries are the largest buyers of Iranian oil, according to Bloomberg. Discounts offered by Iranian suppliers help Chinese private companies compensate for low profitability. However, these plants are currently operating at near-record low capacity. They also accumulated more raw material stocks than usual at the beginning of the year, Vortexa says. This led to a decline in purchasing demand in May.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 07.11.2025 Expectation: 2100 pips
Silver set to resume downtrend after correction
01 November 2025 94
Period: 07.11.2025 Expectation: 1000 pips
S&P 500 builds support before resuming growth
01 November 2025 74
Brent sell
Period: 07.11.2025 Expectation: 250 pips
Brent crude is heading downward ahead of OPEC meeting
31 October 2025 71
Period: 07.11.2025 Expectation: 750 pips
AUDCAD primed to test technical resistance one more time
31 October 2025 54
Period: 06.11.2025 Expectation: 250 pips
Invest in natural gas to capture $3.500 in growth amid soaring demand
30 October 2025 109
Period: 30.11.2025 Expectation: 6400 pips
Buying GBPUSD amid stronger UK economic data
30 October 2025 78
Go to forecasts