4 June 2025 | Oil

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

According to Vortexa, crude oil and condensate deliveries from Iran to China totaled just over 1.1 million barrels per day in May, approximately 20% lower than it was a year earlier. Further ship tracking data collection may alter these figures.

Bloomberg reports that the US and its allies are seeking to reduce Iran's oil revenues in response to its nuclear program. Emma Lee, an analyst at Vortexa, said tighter restrictions are creating problems in the energy supply chain and raising concerns about its stability. She added China is experiencing a decline in demand for crude, primarily due to delays in seasonal maintenance at oil refineries, which is expected to continue until July.

China's independent refineries are the largest buyers of Iranian oil, according to Bloomberg. Discounts offered by Iranian suppliers help Chinese private companies compensate for low profitability. However, these plants are currently operating at near-record low capacity. They also accumulated more raw material stocks than usual at the beginning of the year, Vortexa says. This led to a decline in purchasing demand in May.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 21.05.2026 Expectation: 1500 pips
Selling S&P 500 with 7,300 target amid inflation shock and overheated market conditions
Today at 08:03 AM 3
Gold sell
Period: 31.05.2026 Expectation: 600 pips
Gold sell-off targets $4,640
Today at 04:15 AM 6
Period: 31.05.2026 Expectation: 400 pips
Buying AUDUSD up to 0.7280
Today at 04:15 AM 8
Period: 13.06.2026 Expectation: 1000 pips
Go long on USDCAD with 1.38800 target in play
Yesterday at 10:48 AM 47
Period: 20.05.2026 Expectation: 100 pips
Natural gas prices are correcting within upward channel ahead of another rally
Yesterday at 09:39 AM 25
Period: 20.05.2026 Expectation: 1000 pips
Investing in NVIDIA stock with $230 in sight
Yesterday at 09:06 AM 16
Go to forecasts