4 June 2025 | Oil

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

Iranian oil supplies to China fall due to US restrictions and declining demand

According to Vortexa, crude oil and condensate deliveries from Iran to China totaled just over 1.1 million barrels per day in May, approximately 20% lower than it was a year earlier. Further ship tracking data collection may alter these figures.

Bloomberg reports that the US and its allies are seeking to reduce Iran's oil revenues in response to its nuclear program. Emma Lee, an analyst at Vortexa, said tighter restrictions are creating problems in the energy supply chain and raising concerns about its stability. She added China is experiencing a decline in demand for crude, primarily due to delays in seasonal maintenance at oil refineries, which is expected to continue until July.

China's independent refineries are the largest buyers of Iranian oil, according to Bloomberg. Discounts offered by Iranian suppliers help Chinese private companies compensate for low profitability. However, these plants are currently operating at near-record low capacity. They also accumulated more raw material stocks than usual at the beginning of the year, Vortexa says. This led to a decline in purchasing demand in May.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 14.09.2026 Expectation: 1000 pips
Invest in AUDCAD on RBA taking monetary pause
Yesterday at 12:07 PM 32
Period: 14.09.2026 Expectation: 3500 pips
GBPUSD sell-off targets 1,31500
Yesterday at 06:58 AM 34
Period: 13.09.2026 Expectation: 150 pips
Selling ETHUSD down to $1,750
13 August 2026 43
Gold buy
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 46000 pips
Going long on gold amid slowdown in US inflation
13 August 2026 72
Period: 31.10.2026 Expectation: 1100 pips
Invest in EURUSD up to 1.16400
13 August 2026 30
Period: 13.09.2026 Expectation: 250 pips
Buying S&P 500 with 8,000 target
13 August 2026 57
Go to forecasts