Probability of Straight of Hormuz oil supply distruptions is low — Goldman Sachs report

According to yesterday's Goldman Sachs analysts' report, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruptions following the easing of the Middle East geopolitical tensions stands at just 4%.

Market participants' concerns had previously intensified amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. As a result, Brent crude prices peaked at $79.93 per barrel. However, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the countries, prices fell back below $68. Additionally, the market anticipates rising resource inventories during the autumn period, which reduces shortage risks.

The company's analysts estimate a 60% probability that energy prices will remain within the current range, with only a 28% chance of exceeding these levels. In their view, any disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices up to $90 per barrel.