Shortages in key pricing regions are keeping oil prices up — Morgan Stanley

In recent months, global oil reserves have grown rapidly. Most of this growth has occurred in the Asia-Pacific region, helping to keep energy prices stable, Morgan Stanley reports.

In the five months to the end of June, global oil reserves rose by approximately 235 million barrels, but only 10% of this increase occurred in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. However, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, it is these countries that are largely responsible for setting oil prices.

At the moment, the cost of spot deliveries is higher than prices for more distant periods. This indicates current market tension. According to the bank's analysts, over the next 12 months, oil reserves in the OECD will grow by no more than 165 million barrels, reaching the 2017 level. During that period, Brent prices averaged around $65 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel for the fourth quarter of this year and at $60 for 2026.