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23 July 2025 | Other

Bank of Japan may raise rates this year — Reuters poll

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Bank of Japan may raise rates this year — Reuters poll

A Reuters survey indicates most economists expect the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates by at least 25 basis points before year-end. However, mounting uncertainty from global trade tensions and domestic political shifts following the ruling coalition's election defeat could complicate this move.

The July poll revealed 83% of economists anticipate no policy changes at the BOJ's July and September meetings. Yet 54% forecast a rate hike to at least 0.75% in Q4 — up from 48% in June's survey.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research, suggests late 2025 may represent the final window for near-term rate increases. He cites projected inflation slowing after 2026 and growing risks from US tariffs. Experts predict Japan's core inflation will reach 2.6% in fiscal year 2025 before easing to 1.7% in 2026.

Elena Dorokhina MarketCheese

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