AUDCAD pullback offers buying opportunity ahead of expected RBA hike

The AUDCAD daily chart from March 13, 2026, tells the story of a rebound that is starting to lose its steam. The pair fell hard from a local peak of 0.97503 down to 0.94729, then ripped higher for two straight days—until a bearish candlestick on March 12 slammed on the brakes. Today, buyers and sellers are locked in a stare-down, with neither side willing to give an inch. 

Technicals are currently flashing short-term bearish control. The Chaikin Oscillator has slipped into negative territory and keeps heading south. This is a classic sign of distribution, suggesting that some market participants are cashing in after the three-day bounce. But here is the thing: taking money off the table after a sharp rally is par for the course and doesn't automatically spell a trend reversal.

Now, take a look at the Stochastic Indicator. It is hovering in the neutral zone, leaning slightly bullish. And this is where it gets interesting: the oscillator is climbing while the pair is drifting lower. In technical analysis, this divergence is a telltale warning that selling pressure could be fading, potentially paving the way for a rebound in the next few sessions. That said, the indicator is creeping uncomfortably close to overbought territory, so any upside may be modest at best.

Shifting gears to the fundamentals, the Aussie has some tailwinds brewing. In theory, the oil shock triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade should boost the loonie as an exporting currency. In practice, Canada is lugging around some baggage—USMCA uncertainty and domestic cracks are keeping a lid on any CAD strength. Across the Pacific, however, the story is playing out differently. Soaring energy prices are stoking inflationary pressure in Australia, cranking up the odds of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank next week. If delivered, this could be rocket fuel for the Aussie. But—and it is a big but—the regulator might hit the pause button, as geopolitical tensions are running hot. If they do, expect the pair to drift lower. Even so, with more rate hikes priced in later this year, the downside could have a solid floor.

For those looking to act, consider the plan down below for your trading: 

Buy AUDCAD around 0.96000. Place Take profit 1 at 0.96885 and Take profit 2 at 0.97390. Set Stop loss at 0.95300.

This forecast is valid from March 13 till March 20, 2026.