AUDCAD is at risk of correction amid fragile Middle East truce

Bullish momentum in AUDCAD is losing steam after its failed attempt to consolidate above the psychologically significant 0.9800 level, setting the stage for a short-term correction.

The technical setup confirms that the market is running hot and the current upside is fading. An analysis of Bollinger Bands on the daily chart shows that quotes are hovering around 0.97740—above the upper line at 0.97655. Historically, when the pair broke out of the channel, it often signaled a sharp pullback toward the 20‑day exponential moving average (EMA20) at 0.96297.

The Stochastic Oscillator paints a similar picture. Although bulls remain in control, the clouds are gathering, urging caution. The %K line sits at 70, while the %D one is at 59, both pointing upward. The only cause for concern is %K's proximity to overbought territory, suggesting that current levels may be unsustainable and further upside is unlikely without a breather or a pullback.

Another factor in favor of an immediate retreat is the Chaikin Oscillator. The indicator remains in the positive zone, meaning that bulls still wear the crown. However, on Friday, the market saw a slower pace of capital inflows and a move away from recent peaks. This is a telltale sign of a looming bearish attack.

On the flip side, the fundamental picture appears to benefit the Aussie—though only temporarily. The announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp fall in the energy market. The drop in crude weighed on the fuel-linked loonie, increasing the appeal of speculative assets like AUD. But keep in mind that this impact is likely to be short-lived, as the truce has already proven fragile. This weekend’s peace talks between the two sides could spark a new wave of risk aversion and reshuffle the deck.

Take into account the trading plan down below:

Sell AUDCAD at current levels around 0.97700. Place Take profit at 0.97000. Set Stop loss at 0.98200.

This forecast remains relevant between April 10 and April 17, 2026.