AUDUSD at risk of selling with target of 0.6085

The AUDUSD currency pair is moderately rising on Tuesday. However, a stronger US dollar limits the pair's growth amid increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are focused on Wednesday's meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), with interest rates expected to remain in the range of 4.25–4.50%.

The Australian dollar could potentially come under pressure due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious stance on monetary easing.

From a technical point of view, AUDUSD is in a broad upward correction after breaking out of the downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe (H12).

Wave structure analysis shows that the price is in the second ascending wave, the top of which may have already formed at the level of 0.6405 back in February. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) points to a prolonged divergence, a shift in trend and the second wave's transition to a structure of the third descending one.

Since the first wave, which was formed between 30 September 2024 and 13 January 2025, is prone to decline impulsively, the third wave may increase the movement in this direction. The price will first head towards the minimum of the first descending wave at the level of 0.6130. However, the potential of the third wave is much broader.

In terms of candlestick analysis, between 21 February and 3 March, bearish bars overlap the growth volumes of current bullish candles. This indicates the superiority of the sellers over the buyers.

As long as the pair remains below 0.6410, the main scenario suggests a downward movement. However, a breach of this level may lead to a deeper upward correction. The Fed interest rate decision may act as a catalyst for the next impulse.

Short-term prospects for the AUDUSD currency pair suggest selling with the target of 0.6085. Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 0.6260. A Stop loss could be set at 0.6560.

Since the bearish scenario is short-term, the trading volume should not exceed 2% of your total balance to reduce risks.