Selling AUDUSD with target of 0,63500 amid bearish pressure increase

AUDUSD is demonstrating an unstable dynamic, regardless of the buyers’ attempts to support upturn momentum. After reaching a six-month high at 0.65361, the pair corrected downward to 0.64505.

The recent rise was caused by the weakness of the US dollar following President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on the EU until July 9. Despite this temporary relief, investors remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy. After an initial decline, the dollar partially recovered, but analysts believe its long-term outlook will remain under pressure due to concerns over rising government debt and budget deficits.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a wait-and-see approach, but is likely to take the first steps toward cutting interest rates only in September. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is actively easing its policy: last week, the regulator lowered the benchmark rate to 3.85%, and the probability of another cut in July is estimated at 65%. This divergence between the Fed and RBA policies puts pressure on the Australian dollar, limiting its growth potential.

The release of inflation data in Australia will be a key event this week. Analysts forecast a decline in monthly inflation to 2.3%, which could increase pressure on AUDUSD.

The technical picture of the AUDUSD pair shows continued bearish pressure. Prices remain below the key resistance level of 0.65100. The pair has repeatedly tried to break this level, but daily closes have occurred below it, indicating buyer weakness and strong resistance in this area.

Indicators such as RSI and MACD signal the continuation of the current movement. The RSI value is around 46, indicating a relative balance between the influence of buyers and sellers, while the MACD has been declining, pointing to a lost upward momentum.

Current recommendation: 

Selling at the current price. Take profit – 0.63500. Stop loss – 0.65100.