Brent crude is poised to dip further on rising selling pressure above $106.00

During early trading on March 27, 2026, Brent crude ($105.10) attempted to recover and offset some of its losses incurred earlier this week. However, there are doubts about whether this rise is sustainable.

The fundamental story keeps weighing on oil prices. While the market’s attention remains fixated on the Middle East crisis, other risks are knocking on the door. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest report showed an increase in commercial fuel inventories, dampening expectations of a supply deficit in the second quarter (Q2). What’s more concerning, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) appear poised to boost production as early as May.

The technical setup aligns with the fundamental view, suggesting that the current rally lacks conviction. Following the March 23 turbulence, trading volumes remain low, despite the rebound in prices. Moreover, intraday flow data points to a concentration of large orders in the $104.50–$106.00 zone, forming a layer of technical resistance.

A rise in Bollinger Bands is losing steam, while fuel quotes are attempting to jump to the upper limit after a sharp rebound from the midline at $96.80. The channel’s width contracted by 18% from last week’s highs—a telltale sign of a pause before the next move, though the direction is still an open question.

The Chaikin Oscillator remains in positive territory and tries to edge higher, indicating that the uptrend is intact. But bulls are playing it safe instead of pressing the attack. The momentum behind this move looks tepid relative to the price gains seen so far.

To this point, Brent crude is moving in line with our expectations, approaching the profit-taking zone and witnessing that the buying impulse is running on fumes near $105. The current consolidation on lower volumes suggests that the rebound from $96.80 was merely a correction within a broader downtrend, not the start of a bullish reversal.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Sell Brent crude near $106.00, with Take profit at $96.80 and Stop loss at $114.60.

The forecast remains relevant between March 27 and April 3, 2026.