Buying natural gas with $3.230 target on seasonal demand and technical pullback

As of September 18, 2025, the morning this forecast is written, natural gas is priced at $3.033. Although the market has recently touched a weekly high, it is now exhibiting signs of hesitation. This uncertainty stems largely from expectations surrounding the upcoming EIA report, which is projected to show inventories rising above the five-year average.

The RSI (14), with a reading of 63, reflects a loss of upward momentum. While an advance above 60 from neutral territory had previously confirmed a bullish trend, the indicator's current stall suggests buyer fatigue, increasing the chances for a pause or slight pullback before any further near-term gains.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) also underscores weakness among purchasers. Although it has trended upward since August—supporting price appreciation and confirming the health of the trend—its recent decline in tandem with falling prices suggests emerging short-term selling pressure. This must be overcome to resume the bullish move.

A decisive break above the $3.100 resistance is required to confirm continued growth and pave the way for natural gas toward the $3.230 target. Immediate support is found at $3. Remaining above this threshold is key to maintaining bullish potential. Falling below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward the psychological support of $2.920.

Fundamentally, the market faces opposing forces: above-average inventory forecasts put downward pressure on prices, while a drop in daily production to a two-month low and strong underlying energy demand provide ground. On top of that, the ongoing heat wave in the US, which is expected to persist into early October, alongside the typical seasonal surge in demand during this period, keeps bolstering the bullish outlook.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Buy at the current price or while natural gas corrects to $3.000. Take profit: $3.230. Stop loss: $2.920.

This forecast is valid from September 18 to September 25, 2025.