Buying gas with $3.150 target amid completing correction

The natural gas market is seeing a correction following recent bullish momentum, which pushed the price to a local high of $3.139. Quotes are now fluctuating around the opening level of $2.992. Current dynamics may hint at seller exhaustion and the beginning of consolidation ahead of another upside move.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) on the daily chart confirms the technical setup. It keeps moving within an uptrend but at a slower rate. This is a key sign of continued buyer interest and potential accumulation of positions during the current decline, as total purchases still exceed sales volume despite the correction. These conditions reflect a classic bullish signal.

The RSI is now in neutral territory at the 62 level, additionally invalidating the bearish scenario. The indicator avoided the oversold zone and stayed in the upper neutral area, confirming buyer dominance. The current RSI value suggests that the market is well-balanced after the recent correction and leaves room for its further growth into overbought territory.

The fundamentals provide a mixed but generally supportive picture. Although record gas production in the US is putting pressure on prices, the seasonal decline in LNG exports and forecasts of milder weather are supporting demand. At the same time, structural deficits in Europe and Asia, combined with geopolitical risks, continue to create a long-term upward potential for the commodity.

Considering the current technical setup and fundamental pressures, the most likely scenario for the coming week is a resumption of the uptrend. The resistance zone near $3.050–$3.150 may be the target of the movement. A potential catalyst for a deeper decline in case of negative news will be a breakdown of the $2.900 level, which looks unlikely under current circumstances.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Buy natural gas at the current price. Take profit: $3.150. Stop loss: $2.900.

The forecast remains valid between September 11 and September 18, 2025.