Natural gas selloff on rebound to resistance

The natural gas (NG) market is in a wait-and-see period, treading water after sharply nosediving from the high it reached on December 5. Quotes have stabilized near the middle Bollinger Band, reflecting a genuine tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Technicals back up the view of the price approaching its make-or-break support and selling momentum running out of steam. The Stochastic Oscillator, while still neutral (%K=21 and %D=31), is knocking on the door of oversold territory, thus flashing a strong sign that a rebound is in the offing.

Further building the case for stabilization are trend and volatility analyses. The price is clinging to the middle Bollinger Band (4.410), a level often considered a line in the sand that can indicate equilibrium and serve as a springboard for the next move. The narrowing of its width visually confirms that volatility has dried up—a typical calm before the storm that precedes a new directional impulse. Although still in the red, the Chaikin Oscillator showed a glimmer of hope during morning trading. This hints buyer interest might be turning a corner.

Near-term fundamentals, however, are all over the place. Expectations of a major US inventory drawdown due to the recent cold snap are giving the market a leg up. Still, this backing is on thin ice, challenged by forecasts for warmer weather waiting in the wings by the end of the month and, more importantly, the ever-present anchor of record domestic production, which tends to cap any sustained rally.

Given the technical picture of consolidation near support and the mixed fundamental backdrop, the most likely scenario for the coming sessions seems to be a short-term rebound off the canvas from current levels. Nevertheless, this move will probably hit a wall of strong resistance and be followed by traders looking to cash out.

Take a look at the trading setup down below:

Wait for the release of inventory data and then sell gas on the rebound. Place Take profit at $3.865. Set Stop loss at $4.838.

This forecast is in play between December 11 and December 18, 2025.