Selling NG on record production and milder weather forecasts

Natural gas (NG) is attempting to recover following a sharp decline over the past few sessions. However, quotes continue to consolidate near $3.200, with no signs of a decisive reversal amid ongoing geopolitical jitters.

The distance between Bollinger Bands is narrowing, while the current NG price ($3.211) is struggling to hold above the midline (SMA20 = $3.221). This threshold still plays the role of a dynamic gauge of supply-demand equilibrium. Each failed attempt to break through only makes this resistance a tougher nut to crack, increasing the odds of a return to the lower band ($2.914).

The Chaikin Oscillator, despite rising slightly from the March 10 minimum, remains deeply entrenched in negative territory. In other words, we still see massive capital outflows. A modest uptick does little to change the broader picture: selling pressure may have eased temporarily, yet the trend remains firmly intact.

The Stochastic Oscillator (%K=26, %D=36) tells a similar story. Its fast line is holding below the slow one, but with no crossover in sight, there is no hint of a bullish initiative. Bears continue to call the shots in the gas market. The indicator’s proximity to the lower edge of the neutral zone, without any reversal signs, could be a harbinger of further downside.

On the fundamental front, the geopolitical premium that recently drove energy prices higher is beginning to fade. The Persian Gulf conflict and the halt in liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from Qatar have already been factored in—a reality confirmed by the March 9–10 correction. Meanwhile, the US remains on the sidelines, sheltered from the global storm. American domestic production is near record highs, while milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks are expected to reduce heating demand. However, redirecting LNG flows from the US to cover supply gaps in other regions may limit the depth of the current decline.

Consider the trading strategy presented down below:

Sell NG between $3.200 and $3.300. Place Take profit at $2.900 and Stop loss at $3.500.

This forecast remains relevant from March 12 till March 19, 2026.