Warm weather sends natural gas tumbling toward November lows

As of March 25, natural gas (NG) is stuck in a holding pattern near $2.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), still recovering from this week's brutal sell-off. A double dose of news triggered a sharp pullback across energy markets: reports that the US is open to negotiations and a five-day ceasefire has been agreed upon in the Middle East conflict. These developments temporarily overshadowed recent disruptions in LNG flows from Qatar.

The outage at Qatar's Ras Laffan plant—a facility that accounts for roughly 17% of the country's export capacity, or about 3%–4% of the global total—has theoretically opened a window for US suppliers. But don't hold your breath. Export terminals have already been running at full tilt, and building new capacity takes years, not months. That's why domestic prices are unlikely to feel much of a pinch, at least in the short run.

Add weather to the mix. Forecasts call for warmer-than-usual conditions across the US stretching all the way to April 8—a blow to heating demand and a green light for utilities to keep pumping gas into storage. At the end of the withdrawal season, this is a rare twist.

Technically, the charts are singing a bearish tune. Prices are trading well below the 200-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which converged into a death cross in early March. After a brief flat shuffle, natural gas is now knocking on the door of critical support at $2.901. The Chaikin Oscillator is flashing red, firmly planted in negative territory—a sign that funds are quietly leaking out of the market.

If you need more proof, look at the failed attempt to reclaim $3.00. This level—once a reliable safety net—has turned into a ceiling. Sellers are lurking just above, ready to cap any rally. The first line of defense is resistance at $2.94–$2.95, and any bounce from there is likely to be short-lived. What's the path ahead, one may ask. It is still tilted to the downside.

For those looking to act, consider the trading plan outlined below: 

Sell natural gas at the current price. Place Take profit at $2.77. Set Stop loss at $3.03.

This forecast is valid from March 25 till April 1, 2026.