The price of WTI crude oil shows the formation of an upward trend.
The decline in the U.S. inflation rate has led to the weakening of the dollar. In addition, there are supply disruptions in the oil market. The combination of these factors is supporting the price of oil.
A slowdown in the rate of price growth in the U.S. could allow the Federal Reserve System to ease monetary policy. This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the dollar and to higher prices for commodities evaluated in the U.S. currency.
Supplies of oil from Canada were reduced due to a series of forest fires in the province of Alberta. At the same time, Iraq expects to renew exports from Turkey through the port of Ceyhan.
According to analysts at Kotak Securities Ltd. the latest inflation data in China showed signs of a erratical economic recovery. They added that continued supply disruptions from Iraq and Canada provided support to oil prices.
Also today, on Thursday, OPEC will publish its monthly forecast, in which it will outline its view of the market prospects for the second half of this year.
The price of WTI oil is consolidating not only awaiting the monthly OPEC forecast, but also on the reduction of long positions by investment funds. However, fundamental data and analysis of the Chinese oil market may increase confidence that oil prices can remain stable at high levels. The forecast from StanChart about the potential elimination of surpluses in the oil market due to OPEC+ countries' production cuts could cause a rise in WTI oil prices.
WTI quotes moved out of the descending channel, breaking through the trend resistance on the H4 timeframe.
In terms of wave analysis, WTI is in the process of forming its third ascending wave on the H1 timeframe. The price has been testing the top of the first wave at 73.65 for two days. A break through this level would signal an increase in upward movement, but it shows strong resistance. Testing of the level resulted in the formation of a new boundary at 73.85, the break-up of which will strengthen the movement in the upward direction.
The short-term prospects for WTI are to buy.
The target is at the level of 78.95.
Part of the profit should be fixed near the level of 75.80.
The stop-loss is at the level of 69.65.
"Bullish" trend has a card-like character, so the volume of trade should not exceed 2% of your balance.