Citi expects copper to fall 10% in second half of 2025

Citi analysts forecast that physical demand for copper will weaken in the second half of 2025 due to higher tariffs in the United States and unfavorable economic conditions. In this regard, the price of the red metal will fall by about 10% to an average of $8,800 per ton.

The bank expects that in April the United States may announce the introduction of tariffs of 25% on copper imports, which will go into effect in May. It is still unclear whether Chile, the largest supplier of the metal, will be affected by these duties. Either way, tariffs will have a significant impact on global copper trade and physical demand, says Citi.

The firm predicts a drop in the price of the commodity on the London Stock Exchange in the near future to $9,500 per ton, and increased pressure on spreads.

Meanwhile, demand for refined copper imports in China may limit downward pressure on the price of the metal in the second quarter of 2025, Citi analysts say. Reduced availability of US copper scrap will also support prices.