Wood Mackenzie presents three scenarios on US tariffs’ impact on industrial metals

Wood Mackenzie has developed three scenarios to illustrate the potential impact of US tariff policy on the metals and mining sector. These include trade truce, trade tensions, and trade war.

The first scenario assumes that duties will primarily affect steel and aluminum production. The US administration is still deciding on copper tariffs. If this persists, the impact on most metals will be minor and metal-intensive production will remain relatively stable.

In the trade tensions scenario, a slowdown in economic growth will dampen industrial demand for metals. With a 10% duty, annual copper consumption could fall by 300,000 tons compared to the trade truce scenario.

In the event of a trade war, demand for copper will decrease by 1.2 million tons. A more serious decline in the consumption of other base metals is also expected. If this scenario plays out, China's manufacturing product export sector will suffer the most.

Demand for metals will begin to improve after 2026, though a full recovery is not expected even by 2030.