A Reuters survey indicates the eurozone economy remains resilient despite potential US tariffs. While the threat of 30% duties on EU goods poses risks, economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged at 2.0% at its July 24 meeting.
According to the Ifo Institute, German business expectations for the economy rose to 90.7 in June, up from a revised 89.0 in May. This marks the highest reading since April 2023 and exceeds Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 89.9.
A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) found that one in three central banks plan to cut their dependence on the dollar and ramp up gold holdings over the next year or two.
The Cabinet of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has approved the budget for 2025 and medium-term financial plan. According to the documents, a substantial increase in government borrowing is expected in order to build up the country's military capabilities.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the regulator is prepared to respond to increasing economic uncertainty tied to global market tensions.
As reported by Bloomberg, French authorities' negotiations over the pension reform, introduced in 2023 by Emmanuel Macron, have stalled. The controversy surrounding the pension reform may plunge France back into a period of uncertainty, hitting the country's economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) should only resort to large-scale bond purchases in "absolutely exceptional cases" given the significant losses caused by this monetary stimulus measure, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
The private sector in Germany resumed growth in the current month. It also demonstrated its best manufacturing performance since 2022, signaling positive prospects. The country's manufacturing sector is approaching the end of a three-year period of contraction.
Business activity in the eurozone’s private sector showed almost no growth in June. Unpredictable US trade policies and global geopolitical tensions are preventing companies from formulating clear forward strategies, Bloomberg reports.
An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.
Capital Economics forecasts that Germany's upcoming fiscal stimulus will have a minor impact on inflation. Despite the country's budget deficit rising from 2.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4% in 2026–2027, price growth is unlikely to exceed the European Central Bank's 2% target significantly.
The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.
Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:
Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.
Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.
Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.
