Euro News (EUR)

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EU prepares strong response to possible 30% US tariffs — Reuters

According to Reuters, France and Germany are weighing possible countermeasures against the US if talks with the Trump administration fail to produce an agreement.

23 July
German private sector shrinks due to weak service sector data — Bloomberg

Germany's private sector unexpectedly contracted in May, Bloomberg reports. The decline was driven by the worst performance in the service sector in the last two and a half years, which offset improvements in the country's manufacturing.

22 May
German private sector shrinks due to weak service sector data — Bloomberg
German companies' economic outlook improved in May amid easing trade tensions

The expectations index, calculated by the German institute Ifo, rose to 88.9 in May from 87.4 a month earlier. The gauge also exceeded the median estimate of experts polled by Bloomberg. According to the news agency, German companies' economic outlook improved amid easing global trade tensions.

22 May
German companies' economic outlook improved in May amid easing trade tensions
Italy expects credit rating upgrade from Moody's

According to Bloomberg, Italy awaits Moody's pivotal credit rating decision. The current Baa3 rating, just one notch above junk status, has remained unchanged since 2022. During this period, Giorgia Meloni's government has made significant strides in restoring fiscal stability.

22 May
Italy expects credit rating upgrade from Moody's
Possibility of ECB rate cutting pause after June meeting increases – Reuters

As ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said, the new US tariffs pose risks of higher inflation in the medium term, despite their short-term disinflationary effect. This justifies the need for an early pause in the rate-cutting cycle.

22 May
Possibility of ECB rate cutting pause after June meeting increases – Reuters
European Union. Markit Composite PMI. The value of the indicator has decreased from 50.4 to 49.5

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

22 May
European Union. Manufacturing PMI. The value of the indicator has decreased from 49 to 48.4

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

22 May
Germany. German Manufacturing PMI. The value of the indicator has increased from 48.4 to 48.8

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.

22 May
Germany. German Composite PMI. The value of the indicator has decreased from 50.1 to 48.6

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

22 May
ECB’s Escriva says unexpectedly strong euro to weigh on inflation

According to European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva, the stronger euro and cheaper energy have been weighing on consumer price growth in the region.

22 May
ECB’s Escriva says unexpectedly strong euro to weigh on inflation
German economic council expects stagnation in 2025

The German Council of Economic Experts, which advises the country’s government, expects stagnation this year. Previously, GDP was projected to rise by 0.4%. Experts note the unfavorable impact of current economic weakness on the labor market.

22 May
German economic council expects stagnation in 2025

The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.

Key drivers of the euro are the following:

  • Macroeconomic indicators such as consumer price indices (CPI), estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), and central bank decisions;
  • Political variables such as geopolitical stability and government policies.

Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:

  • large injections or withdrawals of currency from the market;
  • change in the general mood among investors, which often depends on economic and political conditions.

Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.

Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.

Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.