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EU prepares strong response to possible 30% US tariffs — Reuters

According to Reuters, France and Germany are weighing possible countermeasures against the US if talks with the Trump administration fail to produce an agreement.

23 July
Germany. Germany Trade Balance. The value of the indicator has increased from €17.9B to €21.1B

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.

8 May
German factory orders rose ahead of Trump's tariffs imposition

German factory orders surged in March, exceeding expectations. Such a rise indicates an improvement in the situation in the country ahead of the announcement of new tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

7 May
German factory orders rose ahead of Trump's tariffs imposition
Italy’s services sector posted growth in April

Italy’s services sector expanded for the fifth consecutive month in April. Additionally, the pace of growth accelerated, driven by a boost in new businesses. The HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index for services ticked up to 52.9 last month from 52.0 in March.

7 May
Italy’s services sector posted growth in April
Declining US consumer activity forcing brands to shift their focus to Europe

Retailers and manufacturers are shifting their focus to the European market due to fears of a significant decline in consumer activity in the US. The Trump administration's imposition of 10% tariffs on all imported goods has already led to higher prices and lower consumer confidence in the US.

7 May
Declining US consumer activity forcing brands to shift their focus to Europe
Spanish blackout cost country 400 million euros — CaixaBank

A massive power outage across Spain on April 28 led to economic losses of approximately 400 million euros ($454.68 million), according to an analysis by CaixaBank. Consumer spending plummeted by 34% on the day of the outage.

7 May
Spanish blackout cost country 400 million euros — CaixaBank
Financial and political barriers hamper Macron and Merz’s economic initiatives — Politico

Friedrich Merz assumed the role of German Chancellor after winning the second round of voting. Among his first steps in office, he is set to visit French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

7 May
Financial and political barriers hamper Macron and Merz’s economic initiatives — Politico
European Union. Retail Sales (MoM). The value of the indicator has decreased from 0.2% to -0.1%

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

7 May
European Union. Retail Sales (YoY). The value of the indicator has decreased from 1.9% to 1.5%

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

7 May
ECB stress test to have less impact on EU banks' capital ratios — Bloomberg

The current stress test of Europe's largest banks is expected to have less impact on capital ratios than the previous one due to the sector’s strong profitability last year.

7 May
ECB stress test to have less impact on EU banks' capital ratios — Bloomberg
Germany's newly elected chancellor launches economic reset amid political divisions

Friedrich Merz initially failed to secure the parliamentary support required to become Germany’s next chancellor, Bloomberg reported. However, after hours of deliberation with constitutional scholars, he ultimately secured the support of 316 out of 630 lawmakers, clinching a slim majority.

7 May
Germany's newly elected chancellor launches economic reset amid political divisions

The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.

Key drivers of the euro are the following:

  • Macroeconomic indicators such as consumer price indices (CPI), estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), and central bank decisions;
  • Political variables such as geopolitical stability and government policies.

Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:

  • large injections or withdrawals of currency from the market;
  • change in the general mood among investors, which often depends on economic and political conditions.

Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.

Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.

Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.