No change of the indicator value may reduce the volatility of the related markets.
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A recent Bloomberg poll indicates that economists anticipate further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2025. Experts predict interest rates to dip below 2% as inflation is likely to fall below the regulator’s target level by early 2026.
12 May 2025
ECB’s Vujcic expects inflation to fall to central bank’s target by year-end
Member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council Boris Vujcic believes the growth of consumer prices in the EU will hit the regulator’s target of 2% by the end of 2025. The official expects the annual inflation rate to fall and the price growth to stall in some months.
12 May 2025
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast further strengthening of euro
The euro is currently posting its best performance in two decades. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, Germany's fiscal stimulus serves as the key driver attracting capital to Europe's economy. The experts note the euro still has further upside potential.
12 May 2025
According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut borrowing costs three more times this year, bringing its key deposit rate to 1.5% by the end of 2025. However, the brokerage also warned of risks to this forecast.
12 May 2025
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.
9 May 2025
An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.
8 May 2025
German factory orders rose ahead of Trump's tariffs imposition
German factory orders surged in March, exceeding expectations. Such a rise indicates an improvement in the situation in the country ahead of the announcement of new tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
7 May 2025
Italy’s services sector posted growth in April
Italy’s services sector expanded for the fifth consecutive month in April. Additionally, the pace of growth accelerated, driven by a boost in new businesses. The HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index for services ticked up to 52.9 last month from 52.0 in March.
7 May 2025
Declining US consumer activity forcing brands to shift their focus to Europe
Retailers and manufacturers are shifting their focus to the European market due to fears of a significant decline in consumer activity in the US. The Trump administration's imposition of 10% tariffs on all imported goods has already led to higher prices and lower consumer confidence in the US.
7 May 2025
Spanish blackout cost country 400 million euros — CaixaBank
A massive power outage across Spain on April 28 led to economic losses of approximately 400 million euros ($454.68 million), according to an analysis by CaixaBank. Consumer spending plummeted by 34% on the day of the outage.
7 May 2025
The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.
Key drivers of the euro are the following:
- Macroeconomic indicators such as consumer price indices (CPI), estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), and central bank decisions;
- Political variables such as geopolitical stability and government policies.
Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:
- large injections or withdrawals of currency from the market;
- change in the general mood among investors, which often depends on economic and political conditions.
Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.
Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.
Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.
