On Tuesday, oil prices are declining due to pressure from concerns over escalating trade tensions. Market participants are worried about the impact of increasing friction between the US and EU on economic activity and fuel demand.
According to the analysts at OilPrice, energy majors in Europe, including Shell, BP and Equinor, are once again focusing on oil and gas. Meanwhile, Shell forecasts oil demand to grow by 3.5 million barrels per day until the early 2030s.
An escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel could lead to a 15–20% increase in Brent oil prices compared to pre-conflict levels. Analysts at Citibank say such an outcome is possible if Iranian exports of crude are reduced by 1.1 million barrels per day.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Brent crude prices have climbed to $76–77 per barrel, driven in part by heightened geopolitical tensions. The bank estimates the current fuel risk premium to be around $10 per barrel.
US oil inventories fell by nearly 11.5 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly drop in over a year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a much more moderate decline.
According to vessel-tracking firm TankerTrackers.com, the country has shipped 2.33 million barrels of crude per day starting June 13. Since last Friday, Iran's average oil exports have surged 44% compared to the 12 months through June 12.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of WTI, Brent.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of WTI, Brent.
After rising 4% during Tuesday's trading session, crude oil prices fell due to supply disruption risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Fitch analysts warned that significant damage to Iran's production could exert further pressure on oil prices in the near term.
The Trump administration suggested making 82% of the 9.3-million-hectare National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska available for oil and gas extraction. This move challenges ex-President Joe Biden's initiatives to limit drilling in the region.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of WTI, Brent.
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Oil price movements are more than just charts on a screen. It is one of the key drivers of the global economy. Understanding these dynamics helps in making rational decisions and adapting to changes.
