On Tuesday, oil prices are declining due to pressure from concerns over escalating trade tensions. Market participants are worried about the impact of increasing friction between the US and EU on economic activity and fuel demand.
China's state-owned oil refineries are increasing production after finishing scheduled maintenance. According to Reuters, this is due to seasonal growth in energy demand in the third quarter, as well as the need to replenish depleted diesel and gasoline stocks.
According to Bloomberg, Russia’s seaborne oil exports averaged 3.23 million barrels per day (bpd) over the four weeks to July 13, which is a 3% increase from the period ending July 6. Flows reversed the previous week’s drop.
Energy Aspects reports that China's push to stockpile crude will help offset weaker commercial demand and keep overall oil imports steady. China could buy up to 140 million barrels of crude for its strategic fuel reserves, with deliveries scheduled for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
In June, China recorded its highest oil refining volume in nearly two years as domestic refineries ramped up operations after seasonal maintenance. According to Bloomberg, the surge was driven by national companies seeking to capitalize on favorable diesel market prices.
OPEC and its allies are ramping up oil output, anticipating very strong demand in the third quarter of 2025 followed by tight fuel supply-demand balance in subsequent months. The eight members of the alliance, including Russia, are ending years of production cuts meant to support oil markets.
Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, projecting Brent crude to average around $86 and WTI crude at $83 per barrel. The revision reflects concerns over potential supply disruptions and declining OECD petroleum inventories.
Bloomberg reports that escalating tensions surrounding US global trade policy are further clouding the outlook for crude oil demand. The energy market faces additional pressure from growing expectations of a supply glut later this year.
Oil prices continued their upward trend at the beginning of the week, extending gains from previous trading sessions, as markets reacted to potential new measures targeting Russian crude supplies.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pointed to a seeming contradiction in the global oil market balance, where the projected surplus does not correspond to the real state of supply and demand.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of WTI, Brent.
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