Investors expect US interest rate hike

The Federal Reserve's annual monetary policy conference will take place on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

As reported by Tapas Strickland, NAB's economics director, investor expectations have changed. They predict that the Fed Funds rate will hit a peak of 3.80 percent in March 2023. Two weeks ago, they were projecting a hike to 3.62 percent. He also says that the market movements seen in recent weeks correspond to the hawkish pushback of Fed officials. 

The probability of the US Fed bumping up interest rates 75 basis points is 60 percent, according to interest rate futures. 

The two-year yield, the growth of which correlates to traders' expectations of a Fed rate hike, is at 3.4028 percent, compared to 3.386 percent at the U.S. close. 

It is written in a client note from Commonwealth Bank analysts that there is a strong possibility that expectations of hawkish commentary from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Powell in Jackson Hole will contribute to the upward pressure on the US dollar. According to them, there is still a risk that his comments will not be considered hawkish enough, and a pullback in the U.S. dollar will occur soon.