According to the most optimistic Wall Street estimates, the Federal Reserve will still be able to make a soft landing.
At the same time, such a view is not widespread among the big money managers. They are confident that an economic downturn characterized by continued high price pressures will be the determining factor in next year's trade.
In a close examination of the section of the Treasury yield curve that signals the onset of a recession, the latest Bank of America Corp. survey of fund managers found that stagflation is the consensus view of 92% of respondents.
Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. predicts developments in the "Powell push" scenario, in which the Fed would be forced to raise rates even if economic growth declines. Meanwhile, BlackRock Inc. believes that a soft landing is not expected in either the U.S. or Europe.