Bloomberg survey shows lower forecasts for US economic growth this year

Economists have lowered their expectations for US economic growth this year, a Bloomberg survey showed. Analysts are predicting a reduction in consumer spending and a slowdown in capital investment. They cite increased uncertainty caused by the ever-evolving trade policies of President Donald Trump's administration.

The polled economists expect US GDP to grow 2% in 2025. That's down from last month's estimate of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the forecast for economic growth in the first quarter was cut by a full percentage point to 1.2%.

The Fed's key inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will end the year at 2.8%, respondents said. The previous projection was 2.5%. This will make the central bank cautious about further interest rate cuts.

The surveyed experts predict a sharp slowdown in the growth of business fixed investment in the second quarter before a moderate improvement in the second half of the year.

Economists now see a 30% chance of a recession in the US in the next 12 months, up from 25% in last month's Bloomberg survey.