JPMorgan chief economist warns of recession risks due to Trump's trade policies

JPMorgan's Head of Economic Research Bruce Kasman expressed concern about a significant increase in the likelihood of a global recession to 60% this year. In his opinion, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest tax burden for American households and companies since 1968. The situation is exacerbated by possible retaliatory measures from trading partners and supply chain disruptions.

The implementation of the announced tariffs could significantly hit the US economy, according to the expert. Several Wall Street investment banks have already issued warnings of a possible recession in the United States. Stock markets have also reacted with a fall: the S&P 500 index showed the worst results since 2020. 

If current tariff rates persist, Kasman warns, the US economy could face a serious downturn as early as 2025. Although JPMorgan has not yet adjusted its forecasts, the scale of the possible impact is considered significant. Assessing the situation, the company's analysts await further developments related to the negotiation process between the US and the country's trade partners.