Bloomberg poll: Trump's tariffs increase recession risks in US

After Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, Bloomberg conducted a poll among 54 analysts on April 2–3. About 76% of them said that business uncertainty has increased due to the imposition of duties. At the same time, an overwhelming majority (about 92%) believe that the new measures of the US administration increase the risks for economic growth in the country in the next 12 months.

Those results are consistent with revised forecasts released by several Wall Street companies late Wednesday and Thursday after Trump's speech. Many of them point to an increased likelihood of recession and higher inflation.

At the same time, 58% of respondents said the imposition of duties increases the probability of more active steps by trading partners to reach an agreement with the US this year.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance, drew attention to the great uncertainty surrounding the final size of import tariffs and how long they will be in effect.