4 April | Other

Canada's trade balance turned negative before US tariffs were imposed

Canada's trade balance turned negative before US tariffs were imposed

Canada saw a significant drop in exports in February, resulting in a trade deficit of 1.5 billion Canadian dollars (about $1.065 billion). This stands in stark contrast to January's surplus of 3.1 billion Canadian dollars ($2.201 billion), as noted by Bloomberg.

CIBC economist Katherine Judge reported that the latest downturn in indicators is largely due to the impending US tariffs. Energy exports, in particular, fell for the first time since September, in line with decreasing oil and gas prices.

Benjamin Reitzes from the Bank of Montreal warned that trade data may continue to be volatile. He linked future fluctuations to companies adapting to new business conditions. In response to the decline in exports, Canada has increased its imports of machinery, equipment, industrial goods, and metals to offset the economic losses.

February witnessed a 0.8% uptick in imports, with their volume remaining largely unchanged, in contrast to a 5% fall in exports.

Period: 02.01.2026 Expectation: 740 pips
Central bank policy split drives AUDCAD higher
26 December 2025 50
Brent sell
Period: 09.01.2026 Expectation: 200 pips
Rebound won’t help Brent crude to break out of downtrend
26 December 2025 29
Period: 02.01.2026 Expectation: 1180 pips
GBPUSD set to resume uptrend after holiday break
26 December 2025 39
USDCAD neutral
Period: 28.02.2026 Expectation: 600 pips
Selling USDCAD from 1.4030
26 December 2025 22
Brent sell
Period: 31.01.2026 Expectation: 150 pips
Selling Brent crude down to $60.90
26 December 2025 24
Period: 01.01.2026 Expectation: 362 pips
Natural gas selloff amid ongoing downtrend and weak demand
25 December 2025 48
Go to forecasts