University of California: Trump's policies will lead to recession

For the first time in its history, the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA Anderson), involved in economic forecasting since 1952, has announced the probability of a recession in the United States. Predicting the future course of events, the university's experts forecast negative consequences of the Trump administration's policies. They point out how many different factors are involved.

Considering the immigration policy, they project a shortage of labor force. By imposing duties, the government may provoke a rise in prices and a drop in production. By cutting federal spending, officials reduce the number of jobs in both the public and private sectors. All of these reasons may lead to an economic downturn in the United States.

The university's experts estimate a 36% chance of a recession. Even though official indicators do not yet signal a crisis, the risks of such a scenario over the coming two years remain high, as they said. At the same time, economists warn that the recession could be stagflationary in nature.