20 March | Dollar

University of California: Trump's policies will lead to recession

University of California: Trump's policies will lead to recession

For the first time in its history, the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA Anderson), involved in economic forecasting since 1952, has announced the probability of a recession in the United States. Predicting the future course of events, the university's experts forecast negative consequences of the Trump administration's policies. They point out how many different factors are involved.

Considering the immigration policy, they project a shortage of labor force. By imposing duties, the government may provoke a rise in prices and a drop in production. By cutting federal spending, officials reduce the number of jobs in both the public and private sectors. All of these reasons may lead to an economic downturn in the United States.

The university's experts estimate a 36% chance of a recession. Even though official indicators do not yet signal a crisis, the risks of such a scenario over the coming two years remain high, as they said. At the same time, economists warn that the recession could be stagflationary in nature.

Period: 01.05.2025 Expectation: 1000 pips
GBPUSD to test level of 1.34 again
25 April 2025 58
Brent sell
Period: 01.05.2025 Expectation: 660 pips
Trade uncertainty and excess OPEC+ supply are dragging down Brent
25 April 2025 47
Period: 29.04.2025 Expectation: 600 pips
USDCAD to head towards 1.39400 after rebounding from 1.38200
25 April 2025 38
Period: 02.05.2025 Expectation: 1669 pips
AUDCAD gains on potential easing of trade tensions between US and China
25 April 2025 37
Period: 30.04.2025 Expectation: 12000 pips
ETHUSD set to test upper boundary of downtrend channel
24 April 2025 94
Period: 25.04.2025 Expectation: 500 pips
AUDUSD to fall to 0.63000
24 April 2025 46
Go to forecasts