Goldman Sachs: falling oil prices slow production growth in non-OPEC+ countries

Analysts at Goldman Sachs report that for every $10 decline in Brent crude prices, production growth in non-OPEC+ countries slows by approximately 0.3 million barrels per day annually.

According to the organization's forecasts, if Brent crude prices reach $60 per barrel in 2026, production growth in these countries will decrease from 1.05 million barrels per day to 0.6 million barrels per day. At a price of $50 per barrel, production growth will drop by an additional 0.1 million barrels per day.

The bank also notes that if oil prices fall to $30 per barrel or below, production will decline sharply due to the closing of wells.

In summary, when oil prices decline, producers outside the US and OPEC+ reduce their output. Lower prices lead to larger production cuts, and if prices fall significantly, producers may halt oil output entirely, Goldman Sachs experts stated on Monday.