IEA downgrades oil market outlook in April report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has implemented significant downward revisions to its oil demand projections, reducing near-term growth estimates by 29.13% and anticipating a further 5.48% decline in 2026. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, oil consumption rose by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year.

On the supply side, 2025 global production growth was revised down by 17.8%, driven by lower output from the US and Venezuela.

Global production is projected to average 83.2 million bpd this year. In 2026, it is expected to increase by 0.43%.

Global observed oil inventories rose 0.29% in February.

The Brent crude price plunged 20% below $60 per barrel since early April, but then rebounded to $65 after Donald Trump delayed the imposition of some tariffs.

Energy imports were exempted from the new duties. However, concerns that they could trigger inflation, dampen economic growth and intensify trade disputes have put pressure on oil prices.

A significant drop in the cost of a barrel has shocked the US shale sector, as companies need a price averaging $65 per barrel to profitably drill new oil wells.