Majority of economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate BOJ rate hike in Q3

A Reuters poll of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to maintain the current key interest rate until June and hike it the next quarter. 87% of experts said the risk of a recession in the country is low.

About 84% of economists surveyed, or 47 of 56, predicted that the Japanese central bank will not make changes to monetary policy at its next two meetings on April 30–May 1 and June 16–17.

52% of experts, or 27 of 52, expect the Bank of Japan to raise its interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% between July and September. Earlier in March, 70% of those surveyed anticipated such an outcome.

According to Tsukasa Koizumi of Hamagin Research Institute, forecasts of a pause in rate hikes by the regulator are rooted in the pressure on the economy exerted by US trade policy. At the same time, the impact of US tariffs is not significant enough to force the Bank of Japan to completely give up tightening monetary conditions, Daiwa Securities analyst Kento Minami emphasizes. Markets estimate the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points by the end of the year at 65%.