IMF: US to face the hardest blow from global trade tensions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of serious risks to the global economy caused by the escalation of trade tensions. According to the Fund's analysts, it is the US that will suffer the greatest losses. The forecast of US GDP growth for 2025 was lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%. Thus, the indicator in the US will decelerate more sharply than those in China, Canada, and the eurozone.

The IMF also adjusted the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, describing the current situation as the beginning of a “new era” in which previous trade rules are no longer valid.

As IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted, the real tariff burden in the US has already exceeded the levels seen during the Great Depression. At the same time, the pace of global trade is now slowing significantly, he emphasized.

According to the report, the introduction of new duties has triggered a rise in inflation in the US and increased financial instability. Risks to markets are intensifying as borrowings by hedge funds are increasing, while currencies of developing countries are weakening.

The IMF also calls for maintaining the independence of central banks and avoiding political pressure on monetary policy. However, the Fund considers the US financial markets to be the foundation of global stability.