Goldman Sachs boosts US recession risk on new tariff wave

Goldman Sachs economists believe the risk of a recession in the US has increased due to Donald Trump's imposition of new tariffs.

The bank has lowered its forecast of the US GDP growth in the period from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The country’s economy is now expected to rise 0.5%, down from previously projected 1%. Besides, the analysts raised the probability of a 12-month recession in the US from 35% to 45%.

Goldman Sachs states the forecast still rests on the assumption of a 15% increase in the effective US tariff rate. However, it would require a significant reduction in the import duties scheduled to go into effect on April 9.

In the non-recession scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver three consecutive 25-basis point cuts starting in June, with the rate eventually reaching 3.5–3.75%. Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs’ projections, the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points during 2026 in case of an economic downturn.