11 April 2025 | Dollar

Trump's immigration policy hinders US economic growth — Dallas Fed

Trump's immigration policy hinders US economic growth — Dallas Fed

Pia Orrenius from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Fed) warns that President Trump's immigration policies could severely hamper the country's economic growth. She believes arresting and deporting up to 450 people per day will reduce national GDP by 1% this year. 

The tightening of immigration laws, combined with these enforcement actions, is likely to have serious economic consequences for the US, according to her analysis. Deportations reaching 3,000 per day by 2028 may cost the economy 2% of growth, with the effects lasting for several years after peaking.

Her main concern is that the labor market will be adversely affected, which is already facing shortages due to fewer immigrants coming to the country. The sharp decline in border crossings since Trump took office is expected to have a greater impact on economic development rather than deportations. In light of current circumstances, Orrenius predicts a 0.3% inflation spike.

Gold buy
Period: 31.01.2026 Expectation: 150 pips
Buying gold on dips with $4,500 target
30 December 2025 85
Period: 06.01.2026 Expectation: 2900 pips
Tesla stock selloff on forecasts of declining deliveries and earnings
30 December 2025 51
Period: 16.01.2026 Expectation: 1000 pips
AUDUSD is consolidating ahead of renewed upside
30 December 2025 38
Period: 06.01.2026 Expectation: 3125 pips
Selling BTCUSD due to lack of momentum after December consolidation
30 December 2025 27
Period: 15.01.2026 Expectation: 100 pips
Investing in SPX from $6,870
30 December 2025 30
Period: 09.01.2026 Expectation: 7500 pips
Silver rally stalls as prices push past $80
29 December 2025 82
Go to forecasts