US-China trade truce not to prevent slowdown in US economic growth — Bloomberg

On Monday, the United States and China reached a temporary trade truce. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, such a decision will not prevent a slowdown in US economic growth, though it will reduce the risk of a full-scale recession. Forecasters expect employment to drop and inflation to accelerate in the country.

Current tariffs on imports from China to the US have been reduced from 145% to 30%. However, they still remain significantly higher than they were before President Donald Trump took office in January.

EY chief economist Gregory Daсo noted that front-loaded demand, increased price pressures, and acute political uncertainty will continue to restrain hiring and spending.

Bloomberg analysts say that delaying tariffs halves the risk of stagflation in the US, eases pressure on Chinese manufacturers and US importers, as well as on the Chinese economy. Nevertheless, experts warn that even the reduced tariffs could lead to a 70% drop in bilateral trade between the two countries in the medium term.

Following the announcement of the deal, UBS and Goldman Sachs raised their 2025 GDP growth forecasts for the United States to 0.5% and 1%, respectively. For comparison, the 2024 figure was 2.5%.