25 April 2025 | Euro

Germany lowers economic growth forecast due to US trade policy

Germany lowers economic growth forecast due to US trade policy

The German government has recently downgraded its economic growth forecast and now expects GDP to stagnate this year. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck linked such an adjustment to the adverse effects of US President Donald Trump's trade policies on the country’s ability to export.

Habeck noted that unfavorable external factors, coupled with a falling competitiveness of German cross border sales, are significant hurdles to the nation’s GDP growth. Moreover, he highlighted the chance for a 1% economic upturn next year, which could be attributed to the new government-backed investment package. 

Earlier, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned of the risks of a third consecutive year for Germany with economic stagnation, citing potential impact of US tariffs. In addition, this week's Ifo Business Optimism Index showed a decline, reflecting business concerns over ongoing trade tensions despite expectations for increased government spending.

Period: 31.05.2026 Expectation: 4500 pips
Selling EURUSD from resistance
20 March 2026 34
Period: 27.03.2026 Expectation: 900 pips
USDCAD resistance looms as overheating sets in
20 March 2026 35
Period: 27.03.2026 Expectation: 1050 pips
AUDCAD thrives on monetary divergence
20 March 2026 22
Period: 31.03.2026 Expectation: 800 pips
Buying Brent crude with $115 in view
20 March 2026 39
Gold sell
Period: 31.03.2026 Expectation: 600 pips
Selling gold upon breaking $4,560
20 March 2026 38
Period: 30.04.2026 Expectation: 2000 pips
SPX selloff to follow once it consolidates below $6,600
20 March 2026 20
Go to forecasts