16 May 2025 | Other

Former Central Bank of Australia board member calls for pause in rate cuts due to fiscal spending

Former Central Bank of Australia board member calls for pause in rate cuts due to fiscal spending

According to Warwick McKibbin, a former member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board, the interest rate should be left unchanged during the regulator's meeting next week. He attributes this to the government's spending on fiscal stimulus amid a neutral monetary policy environment.

McKibbin, who served as a member of the RBA board from 2001 to 2011, pointed to Australia's strong labor market and inflation figures remaining just below the central bank's target levels. In such conditions, especially given the uncertainty in global trade created by the actions of the new US administration, a wait-and-see approach and a pause in rate cuts would be a reasonable step, the expert said.

McKibbin's point of view contradicts the general consensus: most economists and traders expect the RBA to cut the key rate to 3.85% on Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, money market participants also predict two more rate cuts by the regulator this year.

Earlier, S&P Global Ratings warned of risks for Australia's credit rating in case of growth of structural deficit, government debt, and interest expenses, which are expected as a result of election promises of politicians.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Brent sell
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 250 pips
Brent crude sell-off targets $88.50
24 August 2026 33
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 550 pips
Go short on SPX down to $7,600
24 August 2026 26
Period: 21.09.2026 Expectation: 2100 pips
Go short on USDCAD as dollar index hits three-month lows
21 August 2026 45
Period: 28.08.2026 Expectation: 1002 pips
GBPUSD is likely to climb further next week
21 August 2026 54
Period: 21.09.2026 Expectation: 950 pips
Buying AUDCAD up to 0.99250
21 August 2026 42
Period: 28.08.2026 Expectation: 540 pips
Brent crude is coming close to July highs
21 August 2026 44
Go to forecasts