11 June 2025 | Dollar

US jobs data overstated — Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics

US jobs data overstated — Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics

The May US jobs report showed a gain of 139,000 positions, surpassing the 125,000 forecast. However, significant downward revisions to previous months' data have tempered optimism. Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests May's figures may also overstate the true health of the US labor market.

Tombs attributes frequent data revisions to delayed payroll reporting from small businesses struggling with high interest rates and tariff costs. Small businesses are being particularly cautious about hiring and capital expenditures due to these financial pressures, he noted.

As Business Insider reports, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year while prioritizing inflation control. But Tombs argues the central bank can't afford to wait, given growing labor market weakness. He anticipates rate cuts beginning by September.

Elena Dorokhina MarketCheese
Period: 30.06.2026 Expectation: 3000 pips
Buy SPX if Producer Price Index stays cool
Yesterday at 11:34 AM 19
Period: 11.07.2026 Expectation: 300 pips
Buying ETHUSD up to $1,950
Yesterday at 11:30 AM 22
Gold sell
Period: 18.06.2026 Expectation: 1200 pips
Sell gold with $3,980 target during brief rebound
Yesterday at 11:01 AM 25
Period: 11.07.2026 Expectation: 1500 pips
Invest in USDJPY ahead of BoJ meeting
Yesterday at 10:00 AM 23
Period: 31.07.2026 Expectation: 800 pips
Invest in USDJPY up to 161.50
Yesterday at 06:35 AM 21
Period: 31.07.2026 Expectation: 1900 pips
Selling GBPUSD down to 1,3200
Yesterday at 06:35 AM 17
Go to forecasts