11 June 2025 | Dollar

US jobs data overstated — Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics

US jobs data overstated — Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics

The May US jobs report showed a gain of 139,000 positions, surpassing the 125,000 forecast. However, significant downward revisions to previous months' data have tempered optimism. Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests May's figures may also overstate the true health of the US labor market.

Tombs attributes frequent data revisions to delayed payroll reporting from small businesses struggling with high interest rates and tariff costs. Small businesses are being particularly cautious about hiring and capital expenditures due to these financial pressures, he noted.

As Business Insider reports, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year while prioritizing inflation control. But Tombs argues the central bank can't afford to wait, given growing labor market weakness. He anticipates rate cuts beginning by September.

Elena Dorokhina MarketCheese
Period: 28.09.2026 Expectation: 4000 pips
Buy USDCAD while US inflation remains sticky
Yesterday at 08:07 AM 33
Period: 11.08.2026 Expectation: 740 pips
Go long on Brent crude up to $95
Yesterday at 06:14 AM 36
Period: 27.09.2026 Expectation: 4650 pips
Invest in USDJPY up to its all-time high of 164.00
27 August 2026 46
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 500 pips
Sell ​​GBPUSD down to 1.3540
27 August 2026 26
Gold buy
Period: 10.09.2026 Expectation: 300 pips
Buy gold with $4,900 in sight
27 August 2026 41
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 250 pips
Buying EURUSD from 1.1650
26 August 2026 36
Go to forecasts