Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect modest rise in US core inflation in May

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect May’s US core inflation figures to show an increase, partly driven by moderate effects of import tariffs. Meanwhile, price hikes for certain services, such as airfares, likely eased or even turned negative.

Analysts see the US consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rising 0.3% in May after a 0.2% increase in April. Year-over-year, prices probably climbed 2.9%.

Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen note that the tariff measures implemented last month had limited impact on price growth, affecting only a narrow range of goods. Meanwhile, service providers likely cut prices to stimulate consumer demand.

Wells Fargo's Sarah House and Nicole Cervi note that substantial inventory levels and expectations of softer tariff policies have so far helped contain inflationary pressures in the US. However, under current conditions, businesses will likely have little choice but to pass on higher costs to consumers.