China's oil demand will peak in 2027 — IEA

Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a new oil market forecast through 2030. According to the organization’s analysts, oil demand in China will peak in just two years and then begin to decline.

The IEA has lowered its estimate of the country’s peak oil consumption by 1 million barrels per day, to 16.9 million barrels. The timing for reaching this level has been moved from 2029 to 2027. The main reason for the revised forecast is the rapid spread of electric vehicles and trucks running on natural gas.

As for global demand, the IEA has kept its expectations almost unchanged. Worldwide oil consumption will reach a peak of 105.5 million barrels per day in 2029. Compared to the current level, daily demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels, mainly driven by India and other developing countries.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol also drew attention to the growth in oil production. Although the pace of US shale development is slowing, this is being offset by increased output in Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. As a result, production will outpace demand, putting pressure on crude prices.