Experts polled by Bloomberg expect US June jobs report to show slowdown due to Trump’s policy impact

According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, US payrolls increased by 106,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May. They also estimate the unemployment rate surged to 4.3%. The potential slowdown in job growth is being attributed to shifts in trade and immigration policies under the Donald Trump administration.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release official figures later on Thursday. Any signs of significant labor market softening could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its upcoming July 29–30 meeting rather than in September as previously anticipated, Bloomberg reports.

Economists remain divided on unemployment projections, since most leading indicators point upward. Continuing jobless claims have hit their highest level since November 2021, while May layoff announcements surged 61% and reached an October 2020 peak. Citigroup economists now project unemployment rising to 4.4%, citing particular challenges for recent college graduates entering the job market.