Confindustria warns that US tariffs could cost Italy up to 0.8% of GDP

The US president's decision to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union could shrink Italy's GDP by 0.8% by 2027, according to a report by Confindustria's research unit.

The organization estimated that without countermeasures from the EU, pressure on the country’s economy will continue to increase. Italy’s GDP growth is expected to drop by 0.25% this year, 0.59% in 2026, and over 0.8% by 2027.

Consulting group EY released even more pessimistic projections. According to their forecast, the 30% tariffs would slash Italy's GDP growth by 1.4% in 2025–2026, wiping out the expected rise during that period.

Last month, Italy’s national statistics office, Istat, also published its estimates, projecting that the country’s economy will expand by 0.6% in 2025 before rising further to 0.8% in 2026.

Confindustria said that the only acceptable US tariff rate is zero, arguing that EU exports are already taking a hit from the weaker dollar.