Head of economic and policy research at JPMorgan Bruce Kasman wrote that slowing GDP growth alleviates problems with supplies and eases the price shock for commodities. Even though there will be more complications in China during the winter because of the coronavirus and the energy crisis in Europe, there is no risk of global recession. Prospects for global GDP growth remain low.
There are several difficulties related to oil supplies. Safe and stable supplies are not the only thing countries need to keep their economies running, the US also needs to replenish stocks it ran out of last year. In 2022, the US spent 180 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves. Now 378.62 million barrels remain in reserve, and a year ago, it was 598.92 million barrels.
The forecasts of Fitch Ratings concerning the oil and gas industry show stable development. According to this data, in 2023, the productivity of the industry will remain at last year's level. It is expected that in 2023, the average prices for energy products will fall due to decreasing economic growth. However, the situation in the hydrocarbon market is still complicated because of reducing supplies of gas and oil from Russia and the cautiousness of OPEC+.