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A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.

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US dollar to continue declining in second half of 2025 — UBS

The American dollar lost 11% in the first half of 2025. Analysts at UBS forecast the greenback to fall further, with US macroeconomic data being the driving force.

3 July
US dollar to continue declining in second half of 2025 — UBS
Dollar declines amid trade deal hopes and US employment data

The dollar edged lower on Thursday amid optimism about a US-Vietnam trade deal. This agreement has raised hopes for reaching agreements with other countries before new tariffs take effect. Meanwhile, the greenback remains under pressure, hovering near its 3.5-year low.

3 July
Dollar declines amid trade deal hopes and US employment data
Experts polled by Bloomberg expect US June jobs report to show slowdown due to Trump’s policy impact

According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, US payrolls increased by 106,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May. They also estimate the unemployment rate surged to 4.3% due to shifts in trade and immigration policies under the Donald Trump administration.

3 July
Experts polled by Bloomberg expect US June jobs report to show slowdown due to Trump’s policy impact
US private sector employment declines for first time since March 2023 — ADP

According to Wednesday's ADP National Employment Report, US private sector employment fell by 33,000 jobs last month. This marks the first decline since March 2023. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase of 95,000 jobs.

3 July
US private sector employment declines for first time since March 2023 — ADP
US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests Fed rate cuts by September

During his appearance on the Ingraham Angle program on Fox News, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke out about the prospects for the Federal Reserve System's (Fed) monetary policy. In his opinion, the regulator could start lowering interest rates by September.

2 July
US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests Fed rate cuts by September
Further euro appreciation could weaken eurozone economy — Bloomberg

Strengthening of the euro may have a negative impact on the European Union's economy, Bloomberg columnist Marcus Ashworth says. A strong euro can slow down the already anemic recovery of EU GDP, he emphasizes.

2 July
Further euro appreciation could weaken eurozone economy — Bloomberg
US manufacturing PMI barely rises in June as Trump tariffs bite

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, the US manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 last month, up from May's 48.5 reading. Reuters-polled analysts had forecast the PMI little changed at 48.8.

2 July
US manufacturing PMI barely rises in June as Trump tariffs bite
United States. Atlanta Fed GDPNow. The value of the indicator has decreased from 2.9% to 2.5%

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.

1 July
United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI. The value of the indicator has increased from 48.5 to 49

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of USD.

1 July
United States. Manufacturing PMI. The value of the indicator has increased from 52 to 52.9

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of USD.

1 July

The dollar is the monetary unit of the United States (US). It is also used as the official currency by some other countries (Ecuador, Zimbabwe, El Salvador). The dollar holds a leading position in the world economy.

At the moment, the dollar dominates the system of international settlements with almost 50% share (the euro ranks second with less than 25%). Meanwhile, the dollar's dominance is even more pronounced in the financial sector, on the foreign exchange market, and in the government reserves.

The US currency (USD) quotes, as well as those of its foreign counterparts, depend primarily on the economic and political situation in the issuing country. The US authorities, such as the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) and the Department of the Treasury, influence the dollar exchange rate by changing their monetary, fiscal, budget, and tax policies. 

Moreover, the value of the dollar may be significantly affected by the latest news and the international situation. Global economic problems and rising geopolitical tensions have historically been favorable for the US currency, as investors consider it one of the major safe-haven assets, along with gold. In contrast, during periods of strong economic growth and a relatively calm global environment, the demand for the dollar tend to reduce.