An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of USD.
An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of USD.
The US dollar is trading in a narrow range after an initial weekly decline as investors await developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, Reuters reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stressed that quality trade agreements take precedence over speed.
Goldman Sachs analysts note that renewed strength in US assets has supported the dollar’s rebound. However, this poses the biggest risk to the bank’s bearish outlook on the currency. The US Dollar Index rose 1.7% in July, after dropping nearly 12% in the first half of the year.
UBS analysts expect the US dollar to weaken in the medium term, with the EUR/USD pair possibly reaching 1.20. The bank adheres to this forecast, even despite the uncertainty about the September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
The preliminary US Consumer Sentiment Index for July, calculated by the University of Michigan, rose to a five-month high of 61.8 from 60.7 in June. However, the index remains below levels seen last year.
No change of the indicator value may reduce the volatility of the related markets.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.
The options market shows investor expectations for currency movements. Right now, signals suggest fading confidence in further dollar weakness. Some companies are buying up euro put options that will appreciate if the euro weakens, to hedge against a potential decline in the European currency.
BofA remains skeptical about the US dollar's medium-term growth prospects. However, the bank sees a chance for temporary gains of the currency in summer. The report highlights signals pointing to a potential trend reversal.
The Trump administration has unveiled plans to increase import duties on goods from China and other nations. Analysts interviewed by Bloomberg caution that the move will drive up US consumer prices as businesses shift higher costs onto shoppers.
US Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggests cutting interest rates in July. He argued this move is needed to support the economy as the labor market shows signs of cooling.
The dollar is the monetary unit of the United States (US). It is also used as the official currency by some other countries (Ecuador, Zimbabwe, El Salvador). The dollar holds a leading position in the world economy.
At the moment, the dollar dominates the system of international settlements with almost 50% share (the euro ranks second with less than 25%). Meanwhile, the dollar's dominance is even more pronounced in the financial sector, on the foreign exchange market, and in the government reserves.
The US currency (USD) quotes, as well as those of its foreign counterparts, depend primarily on the economic and political situation in the issuing country. The US authorities, such as the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) and the Department of the Treasury, influence the dollar exchange rate by changing their monetary, fiscal, budget, and tax policies.
Moreover, the value of the dollar may be significantly affected by the latest news and the international situation. Global economic problems and rising geopolitical tensions have historically been favorable for the US currency, as investors consider it one of the major safe-haven assets, along with gold. In contrast, during periods of strong economic growth and a relatively calm global environment, the demand for the dollar tend to reduce.